A330neo vs A380neo: the market view

There’s been a lot of discussion on development of ‘neo’ concepts on widebody aircraft recently, specially for Airbus aircraft and after B777X launch.

In this article, we will focus on A330-300 & A380 and try to understand if market demand as it stands today justifies an A330neo or an A380 development.

Note: A330-200 is not treated here.

Market demand

Using Airbus & Boeing market forecasts for A330-300 & A380 aircraft, we find following rough demand estimates

Data

A330-300neo A330-300neo A380neo A380neo

Market forecast origin

Airbus Boeing Airbus

Boeing

Market 2013-2032

1752 1673 1124

550

Market share

30% 30% 70%

70%

Market / year 44 42 39

19

Assumptions:

  • A330-300neo & A380neo EIS = 2019
  • A330-300neo production rate = 72 AC / year
  • A380neo production rate = 30 AC / year

Development costs & depreciation aircraft

Data

A330-300neo A330-300neo4 A380neo A380neo7

Dev cost – Aircraft (2013 – M€)

2000 2000 3500

3500

Depreciation horizon (years)

10 10 10

10

Dev. costs ~ Depreciation / year (M€)

200 200 350

350

Dev. costs ~ Depreciation / AC (M€) 4.6 4.8 8.9

18.2

Assumptions:

  • A330-300neo development costs = A320neo development costs x 300 /150 ~ 2 000 M€ (300 is standard seat capacity for 3-class A330-300 & 150 is standard seat capacity for bi-class A320)
  • A380neo development costs = A320neo development costs x 525 /150 ~3 500 M€ (525 is standard capacity for 3-class A380 & 150 is standard seat capacity for bi-class A320)

Conclusion

  • A330-330 type aircraft demand is x1.5 / x2 vs A380 demand – at this stage, Airbus A380 forecast demand seems too optimistic (1300 aircraft over next 20 years => > 60 aircraft /year but average A380 yearly sales to date only 30!)
  • A380neo development costs should also be x1.75 vs A330neo
  • Pending specific profitability analysis (even if I would not expect very big surprises), A330neo development seems more attractive than A380neo as
    • A330neo development cost per unit of aircraft demand stands at ~4.7M€ whereas
    • A380neo development cost per unit of aircraft demand stands at ~14 M€

Laisser un commentaire

Votre adresse de messagerie ne sera pas publiée. Les champs obligatoires sont indiqués avec *

Vous pouvez utiliser ces balises et attributs HTML : <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>